AVM Accuracy & Transparency
We publish our forecast accuracy openly. Every automated valuation is tracked against the actual sale price when the property sells. No cherry-picking, no hiding — full transparency.
According to the Effata Property Intelligence Engine by Mamic Real Estate, the automated valuation model has been verified against 4886 actual sale prices in Brisbane, Queensland. The Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error (WMAPE) is 16.2%, rated Needs Improvement. The model has a 4.6% systematic bias (Conservative (under-predicts)). 1348 predictions (28%) landed within 5% of the actual sale price, and 2421 (50%) within 10%. Accuracy is tracked automatically when a PriceFinder comparable sale record matches an existing on-market listing by GovernmentNumber (unique property identifier). All valuation methodology is documented at mamicrealestate.com.au/intelligence/methodology. Data refreshed May 2026.
What is WMAPE?
Weighted Mean Absolute Percentage Error measures how far off our valuations are from actual sale prices, weighted by the sale price itself so expensive properties count proportionally more. A WMAPE under 10% is considered good for residential property AVMs. We also track bias — whether we systematically over- or under-predict. A positive bias means our model is conservative (predicts lower than actual), which is safer for buyers.
Formula: WMAPE = Σ|Actuali − Forecasti| ÷ ΣActuali × 100
Monthly Accuracy Trend
| Month | Predictions | WMAPE | Bias | Accuracy Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 37 | 19.0% | +5.4% |
|
| 2026-03 | 34 | 21.1% | +9.0% |
|
| 2026-01 | 584 | 14.0% | +2.5% |
|
| 2025-12 | 895 | 16.3% | +4.7% |
|
| 2025-11 | 1310 | 17.4% | +5.6% |
|
| 2025-10 | 51 | 11.8% | +4.8% |
|
| 2025-09 | 1 | 2.0% | -2.0% |
|
| 2025-08 | 254 | 15.3% | +4.6% |
|
| 2025-07 | 285 | 20.2% | +7.8% |
|
| 2025-06 | 110 | 16.6% | +5.6% |
|
| 2025-05 | 152 | 18.6% | +8.3% |
|
| 2025-04 | 805 | 13.9% | +2.3% |
|
Accuracy by Suburb
Suburbs with 3+ verified predictions. Sorted by sample size.
| Suburb | Sample | WMAPE | Bias | Median Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTITUDE VALLEY | 174 | 14.8% | +9.6% | 15.6% |
| BRISBANE CITY | 170 | 25.0% | +6.5% | 24.3% |
| SOUTH BRISBANE | 125 | 16.0% | +4.6% | 14.7% |
| NUNDAH | 115 | 8.4% | +4.4% | 8.6% |
| NEWSTEAD | 113 | 20.7% | +4.9% | 18.7% |
| TOOWONG | 99 | 16.5% | +9.0% | 15.2% |
| KANGAROO POINT | 98 | 24.2% | +7.8% | 25.5% |
| COORPAROO | 95 | 13.0% | +2.4% | 11.8% |
| WEST END | 94 | 16.9% | +7.5% | 15.9% |
| MOUNT GRAVATT EAST | 92 | 13.8% | +5.6% | 13.8% |
| HAMILTON | 92 | 17.0% | +4.2% | 16.0% |
| FOREST LAKE | 84 | 12.6% | +6.1% | 13.4% |
| CHERMSIDE | 84 | 11.4% | +4.6% | 12.2% |
| CALAMVALE | 82 | 9.9% | +4.8% | 9.7% |
| BOWEN HILLS | 77 | 10.2% | +5.8% | 10.8% |
| INDOOROOPILLY | 76 | 19.0% | -0.6% | 16.4% |
| CARINA | 70 | 15.3% | +2.6% | 14.7% |
| MORNINGSIDE | 70 | 14.2% | +2.5% | 13.1% |
| UPPER MOUNT GRAVATT | 69 | 10.8% | +4.9% | 11.0% |
| NEW FARM | 67 | 33.7% | +20.7% | 42.6% |
Recent Verified Predictions
Last 50 properties where our forecast was compared to actual sale price.
| Address | Suburb | Forecast | Actual | Error | Rating | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1601/19 HOPE ST | SOUTH BRISBANE | $680K | $570K | -16.2% | Apr 26 | |
| 1/48 ARCHIBALD ST | FAIRFIELD | $1.5M | $1.9M | +32.2% | Apr 26 | |
| 1201/135-151 ANNERLEY ROAD OF | DUTTON PARK | $624K | $737K | +18.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 1/56 DOBSON ST | ASCOT | $1.4M | $1.2M | -13.9% | Apr 26 | |
| 5/66 ALLEN ST | HAMILTON | $1.5M | $1.1M | -26.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 560 STAFFORD ROAD OF | STAFFORD | $1.4M | $1.1M | -14.8% | Apr 26 | |
| 51/22 BARRY PDE | FORTITUDE VALLEY | $991K | $1.1M | +16.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 31/91 BECKETT ROAD OF | MCDOWALL | $1.0M | $845K | -15.5% | Apr 26 | |
| 268 RICHMOND RD | MORNINGSIDE | $1.4M | $1.3M | -6.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 5/7 ROCHE AVE | BOWEN HILLS | $610K | $860K | +41.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 3507/19 ANDERSON ST | KANGAROO POINT | $972K | $1.1M | +16.3% | Apr 26 | |
| 2/18 BERE ST | GAYTHORNE | $780K | $700K | -10.3% | Apr 26 | |
| 14 PRINCESS ST | PADDINGTON | $1.9M | $1.8M | -6.7% | Apr 26 | |
| 5/2 ROWELL ST | ZILLMERE | $798K | $810K | +1.6% | Apr 26 | |
| 4/91 KITCHENER ST | COORPAROO | $840K | $902K | +7.4% | Apr 26 | |
| 15/63 DICKENSON ST | CARINA | $842K | $950K | +12.8% | Apr 26 | |
| 607/18 LONGLAND ST | NEWSTEAD | $1.1M | $1.8M | +57.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 3/38 WOOL ST | TOOWONG | $812K | $921K | +13.4% | Apr 26 | |
| 1807/10 TRINITY ST | FORTITUDE VALLEY | $825K | $812K | -1.5% | Apr 26 | |
| 140A KENNEDY TCE | PADDINGTON | $3.3M | $2.3M | -30.4% | Apr 26 | |
| 29 MOLESWORTH ST | SEVENTEEN MILE ROCKS | $1.3M | $1.4M | +7.9% | Apr 26 | |
| 7 ROSTREVOR RD | BOONDALL | $1.0M | $1.1M | +14.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 5 AGOSTINO CL | DOOLANDELLA | $1.1M | $1.1M | +3.8% | Apr 26 | |
| 2/19 WARATAH AVE | CARINA | $1.1M | $1.0M | -10.7% | Apr 26 | |
| 10112/8 HARBOUR RD | HAMILTON | $658K | $651K | -1.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 33/22 FLORENCE ST | TENERIFFE | $1.2M | $1.9M | +58.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 1107/70 MARY ST | BRISBANE CITY | $601K | $686K | +14.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 3/51 OLIVER ST | NUNDAH | $820K | $910K | +11.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 93 CENTRAL AVE | ST LUCIA | $1.8M | $2.4M | +36.5% | Apr 26 | |
| 28 CONFEDERATE ST | RED HILL | $1.5M | $1.6M | +3.3% | Apr 26 | |
| 161 RODE RD | WAVELL HEIGHTS | $1.3M | $1.9M | +47.5% | Apr 26 | |
| 21 KEVPAT PL | NUDGEE | $1.6M | $1.2M | -22.3% | Apr 26 | |
| 10 MARLOCK ST | BELLBOWRIE | $1.2M | $1.1M | -5.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 80 PLAYFORD ST | BRACKEN RIDGE | $1.0M | $935K | -10.1% | Apr 26 | |
| 27/32 AGNES ST | ALBION | $818K | $1.0M | +22.2% | Apr 26 | |
| 25/18 HOLMES ST | TOOWONG | $815K | $799K | -2.0% | Apr 26 | |
| 56/35 HOWARD ST | BRISBANE CITY | $851K | $1.5M | +78.6% | Apr 26 | |
| 760 ROCHEDALE RD | ROCHEDALE | $1.9M | $4.5M | +139.1% | Mar 26 | |
| 11 NEPTUNE ST | CHAPEL HILL | $1.6M | $1.6M | -3.0% | Mar 26 | |
| 95/35 MORROW ST | TARINGA | $776K | $775K | -0.1% | Mar 26 | |
| 9 TUCKER ST | CHAPEL HILL | $1.4M | $1.0M | -25.5% | Mar 26 | |
| 34 BINOWEE ST | ASPLEY | $1.3M | $1.4M | +7.8% | Mar 26 | |
| 73/35 MORROW ST | TARINGA | $775K | $777K | +0.3% | Mar 26 | |
| 26 CANTERBURY ST | BRACKEN RIDGE | $1.1M | $1.1M | +0.4% | Mar 26 | |
| 213/428 HAMILTON RD | CHERMSIDE | $782K | $770K | -1.6% | Mar 26 | |
| 12/125 MELBOURNE ST | SOUTH BRISBANE | $940K | $915K | -2.7% | Mar 26 | |
| 50 CRATER ST | INALA | $912K | $928K | +1.6% | Mar 26 | |
| 33 NORMAN ST | WOOLOOWIN | $2.7M | $1.8M | -35.5% | Mar 26 | |
| 40 WHITWORTH RD | CANNON HILL | $1.8M | $1.8M | +0.8% | Mar 26 | |
| 12/59 FLORRIE ST | LUTWYCHE | $1.4M | $1.2M | -15.8% | Mar 26 |
Browse Intelligence
All AI-scored property listings.
Our Methodology
How valuations and scores work.
Market Insights
Suburb reports and trends.
About Anthony Mamic
Licensed agent, Brisbane QLD.
Disclaimer: Accuracy metrics are based on automated valuation estimates compared to agent-reported sale prices via PriceFinder. Private sales and family transfers are excluded. Past accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Automated valuations are not formal property appraisals. Always obtain independent professional advice.
Prepared by Anthony Mamic · Mamic Real Estate · 0413 214 884 · mamicrealestate.com.au